Caveat: This is just my best guess of things will go, but it don’t mean squat if we don’t get out there and earn it. I’ll be canvassing this weekend. Will you?

I’ve entered my electoral pool with the map above. Obviously, this is terrifically pro-Obama, but I don’t think it’s at all insane. Here’s why:

• Everything I’ve read and heard about indicates that the black vote will be humungous this year. So much so that it swings southern states like Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. I think the ad buy in Georgia helps too.

• The black vote helps in Missouri too. Plus, I just really like the work we did for Claire McCaskill in 2006, and I think we can continue it this year.

• We’re not going to lose Pennsylvania. We’re just not.

• The Obama campaign is putting some resources in North Dakota, which I think will be enough to tip a state that usually sees no attention. Election Day Voter Registration (EDVR) helps too. Anyone the field program ID’s, they can get to the polls to register and vote all at once.

• The most foolish pick on the map is probably Indiana. We might not have enough this year, but I want to turn the Midwest blue.

• We fall just short in Montana and Arizona. Obama wins these states in 2012.

• For a tiebreaker, I say we get to exactly 60 Senate seats. Again, the black vote in Georgia is the story of the night.

To be clear, this has the potential to be an absolutely phenomenal story about African-American participation in this election. A gigantic surge of this vote is very, very good news for Democrats.