Image courtesy Endgadget

Apple emailed the above invitation to select members of the media earlier this week advertising a special media event to be held in San Jose on Wednesday, October 12. The prominent display of (movie theatre) curtains and the use of Steve Jobs' classic line "One more thing..." that usually precedes the most droolworthy Apple releases at a typical product launch has fueled speculation that the legendary California computer company is set to release the long-rumored video-capable iPod. I don't buy it.

First, I think it's pretty obvious that there's no real market for a video iPod. Think about the market conditions Apple entered with the launch of the original iPod. Sure, the MP3 player market was pretty dismal, but the portable audio market was huge. Virtually everyone already had a discman, a walkman, or a portable radio to use on their commute or when they worked out.

When the original iPod came out, there were lots of people used to buying a gadget that let them listen to music on the go. The iPod's success was because it took an existing user experience and took it a giant leap forward. Big enough that everyone wanted to replace their discman with an iPod. I know I did.

The same is not true for portable video. Portable DVD players are reasonably priced and widely available and near as I can tell offer a pretty good user experience. Yet I know literally zero people who own one. Sure, carrying around a few DVD's isn't as convienent as having a bunch of movies on a hard drive, so there's definitely room for a video iPod type device, but the market is small. Apple releasing one won't suddenly make all those people who aren't buying portable DVD players buy a new portable video device.

And that brings me to the second reason why Apple won't release a video iPod next week. People can't use their existing content with the device and there's no real alternative to existing content.

The DVD has been called the most successful content delivery system in history. It was adopted at a record pace and is now the de facto standard for watching a movie and, increasingly, viewing the hottest TV shows. Virtually everyone already owns at least a couple of DVDs and movie nuts - the folks who ought to form the core audience for a video iPod - own dozens if not hundreds.

But there's no legal way to put a DVD onto your video iPod.

This is a huge obstacle. When I bought my iPod, it was instantly compatible with hundreds of my CDs. Without that built-in store of content to use, my iPod would have been virtually useless. Sure, I could have bought tons of songs from iTunes, but the ITMS didn't come out for a full year after I bought my iPod AND that would have cost a fortune. The digital distribution of audio content is clearly the future, but no one wants to pay twice for a CD they already own.

The same is true for DVD. The trouble is, it's actually illegal to rip a DVD to your computer, thanks to the DCMA. So, unless your video iPod plays DVDs - a feature no one is predicting, you're screwed. Sure, you can buy from the also-predicted iTunes Movie Store, but that will cost a fortune, take forever to download, and force you to shell out an additional fee just to watch the Matrix AGAIN. Not a good scenario. And not a scenario Apple would tolerate foisting on their users.

One caveat to all this. An iPod with a regular-sized that can play short video clips like music videos is not, properly, a video iPod. It is a regular iPod with a bit of a video, just like the iPod Photo before it. Like the iPod Photo, it will be a fine addition to the iPod line and not particularly successful. When I'm talking about a video iPod, I'm talking about something that plays movies or, at least, TV.

I hope Apple doesn't take this route, but it would still be pretty big news. Just not at all interesting.

So there you have it, folks. Impeccable logic that explains that the Apple surprise next week will not be a video-capable iPod. What will it be? Well, that's what we'll all tune in to find out.