That's my prediction. But why, you might be asking, based on Miami's hard fought Game 2 victory that evens the series at 1?

Well, D-Wade ain't gonna average 40 points a game from here on out.

It's like King Kaufman says:

Heat even series, still in trouble

Dwyane Wade and an improved defense led the Miami Heat to a 92-86 win over the Detroit Pistons Wednesday night in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The win tied the series and kept the Heat from falling into an impossible 0-2 hole.

But they're still in big trouble.

That's because Wade played a game for the ages. And it's because the Pistons were uncharacteristically sloppy with the ball, repeatedly turning it over on fast breaks.

And it's because Shaquille O'Neal turned in a decent game. Certainly not dominant -- 17 points, 10 rebounds and two blocks in 33 minutes -- but solid, similar to his Game 1 performance.

And still the Heat had to hang on tight to win.

Wade can't be expected to turn in a game for the ages every night against the Pistons, who have shut him down three times out of five this year. Chauncey Billups, who averages fewer than two and a half turnovers a night, can't be expected to cough it up eight times on a regular basis.

And at 33 Shaq is old and he's hurting, a lot. He benefited from 12 off days before this series started, but he figures to wear down as he's forced to play against a quick, battling team like Detroit every other night once an odd three-day hiatus ends Sunday.

A healthy, dominant Shaq would have given the Heat a good chance in this series because that would have been their biggest edge. The Pistons don't have anyone to match up. With Shaq playing like a mere mortal, the Heat have stolen one, and maybe they'll steal another, but in the series, they're in big trouble.

Even after the loss, the Pistons are in complete control of this series. They've secured home-court advantage and are on their way back to Dee-troit. They play Shaq as good as any team in the league. That means sophomore sensation - emphasis on sophomore - Wade has to be the one to beat them.

D-Wade is a great player and I like his game a lot. That alley-oop in the 4th quarter last night was a great capper to a great playoff performance. But he's not going to do that every game. The Pistons might not shut him down like they did in Game 1, but if Wade scores "only" 30 points last night, the Pistons win.

There's little to suggest this matchup will change over time. If anything, Kaufman is right, a gimpy Shaq will become even less effective.

Now - the brash predictifying. The Pistons put on a show for the home fans Sunday afternoon to take Game 3. Wade plays great in Game 4, but it's not enough as the Pistons hold at home. By Game 5, Shaq will be lucky if he can still walk. Wade drops 45 on the Pistons and the Heat lose by 15.

Pistons in 5. You heard it here first.