1) Exit polls are unreliable.

2) Drudge says the early poll numbers over-sampled women.

I haven't found ANYONE willing to say this other than Drudge, so I don't think it's necessarily true. He's even taken that language down.

That said, it's possible. According to Drudge, the early numbers are 59-41 women. But remember, that's not as bad as it seems. In 2000, actual turnout was more than 53% women.

3) Wonkette has new numbers that are much tighter, but still good.

On the flip side, these numbers have been out for a while and no one else is running with them.

OK, here's the thing about the birdies: They sing different tunes. And I always half-suspect that one of them will rip off his birdie mask and reveal himself to be Karl Rove....

K/B
USA: 50-49
FL: 50-49
OH: 50-49
CO: 48-50
NM: 50-48

(these numbers could change)  

Note: No data for PA, WI, IA, MI, etc. etc. etc.

Further bulletins as events warrant.